from the sci.geo.satellite-nav newgroup
On Fri, 4 Oct 2002 12:36:20 -0700, "Chuck" <nospam@mindspring.com>
wrote:
> I'm looking for speculative opinions, particularly from this newsgroup's
> veterans that have good industry contact, as to how portable consumer GPS
> units are likely to evolve over the next year for various segments (outdoor,
> automotive, marine).
Interesting question....
> * What will happen with display technology? Will anything interesting
> happen with respect to size, resolution, contrast , brightness, or color?
> Or alternatively, have we hit a plateau for a while due to battery life,
> etc?
I think that Moore's Law will still have an effect, and so devices
will get smaller (to the limits of practical screen size), battery
life will get longer, color will get better and resolution higher.
That is the way of technology it seems, and has been paralleled by
developments in PDA's.
> * Will the processor speed increase to the point where auto-routing
> calculation (& re-calculation) is more responsive? I've noticed a lot of
> complaints here.
Most likely...if you look at how fast low power laptop Pentiums are
getting, there is a lot of room for improvement here.
> * Will units get any thinner or lighter?
Probably both, but the screen size and antenna needs will limit how
small they can realistically get.
> * Will usage of Lithium-Ion rechargeable batteries become a reality?
Yup....battery technology is improving...though latest stuff is
costly. The Emtac (bluetooth wireless GPS) has a 6.4 hour life before
charges if fully on (non-trickle mode)...which is not bad for
something smaller than the smallest cell phone on the market.
> * Will vendors start using non-proprietary flash memory expansion ports like
> those we find in digital cameras?
This I doubt...since all the consumer GPS manufacturers have been
following a proprietary technology approach for quite some time. The
only way I can see that changing if some new competitors come into the
market and give Garmin (and others) a run for their money...which I
think might happen.
> * Speaking of flash memory, will complaints from end-users on the slowness
> of map downloads drive the adoption of USB interfaces?
Eventually bound to happen, since many new PC's and laptops will not
have old style serial ports.
> * Will GPS add-on usage for PDA's grow significantly?
Ah....now this leads me to some more interesting speculation (or maybe
some wishful thinking).
The problem with consumer GPS's has been their lack of upgradeability
or expansion capability, coupled with their proprietary technology.
There is no easy way to run your own software on a GPS device, or even
load your own maps (from scans, .jpgs/gifs and the like) without a lot
of trouble.
When we also look at in-vehicle systems, there is an issue
there...sure you can get OnStar in some higher end GM vehicles...but
what about all the other older wheels out there? And then, these
systems tend to have limited upgrade/expansion capability due to their
hard wired nature.
Based on my recent work with the Emtac GPS unit, which has no
display....no controls (cept on/off button) and which sends out
position info over a built in bluetooth connection, I think this might
be the vision of the future.
It would be possible to create a modular system (perfect for vehicles)
where each component is separate and distinct, with dynamic
interaction between components implemented over bluetooth (or 802.11
WiFi in vehicles where power constraints are not so severe). So you
might have a GPS unit like the Emtac that just tracks and transmits
position. You might have a general purpose processor (I'm partial to
embedded Java processors due to their debugability and productivity in
app dev), a display panel which could be a totally separate option (a
removable LCD panel display), internet/communications connectivity
device (which could be as simple as a bluetooth enabled cell
phone)....and who knows what kind of devices could be dynamically
added in the future, without having to rewire your car/boat, etc.
This has lots of benefits...
New technologies and capabilities can be dynamically added, so long as
you can provision the software on the processor (apps to support the
new stuff) on the fly (which is not hard to do even now...especially
with Java-based solutions).
Having independent devices means it would be easy to pull the GPS
receiver/radiator out of your car and velcro it to your backpack when
you decide to go for a hike when you park at the trailhead....and use
a bt-equipped PDA to display moving map info as you hike (maybe a
waterproor ruggedized PDA), rather than the in-car processor and
larger nav-panel display.
It could also potentially make the solution more affordable...you only
buy the pieces you need...and competition for each device would likely
lower prices of the components. You could also get more use out of
existing devices, such as future PDA's, Cell Phones, Laptops, Tablets
(if Bill ever gets his way ;-) ).
I guess the overall view I have is that moving to a component-based
system, with short range wireless integration of the components could
well change the shape of the GPS (and other) markets as we know them.
Andrzej Jan Taramina
http://www.codestuds.com
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